MSI Play-In Stage Advancement Predictions: The Likely Outcome and the 1%变量 (Variable)

11 juillet 2024

The Current MSI Format

The MSI main event already boasts the spring champions from the four major regions: Gen.G, BLG, G2, and TL. The remaining four slots are up for grabs among the eight teams in the Play-In stage. As the landscape of esports evolves and regions consolidate, the wildcard entries have diminished, prompting a shift in the MSI's format. It now features the top two teams from the major regions and introduces a double-elimination format, which seemingly provides wildcard regions with more opportunities to advance. However, this change might also be seen as reducing the chances of upsets for the major regions.

The Contenders in the Play-In Stage

This year's MSI Play-In stage features TES, T1, Fnatic, FLY, EST, GAM, Loud, and PSG. The expected outcome, with a 99% probability of remaining unchanged due to the double-elimination format, is the advancement of the major region teams TES, T1, Fnatic, and FLY.

TES x 2023 League of Legends Team Jacket

Group A Analysis

In Group A, T1, EST, FLY, and PSG are competing. T1 is expected to breeze through the group stage with minimal pressure and advance with a clean sheet. The LCK's strength and style have historically made it difficult for them to stumble against wildcard teams, with the only notable exception being ROX Tigers' loss to ANX in 2016.

Within this group, the Latin American team EST is seen as an underdog with slim chances, while the second spot is likely to be contested between FLY and PSG. Considering PSG's previous defeat by a North American team, it's probable that they may not overcome FLY this time. Although it's not impossible for them to take the North American team's place, the PCS region is often regarded as a larger wildcard region at its core.

Group B Analysis

In Group B, TES is joined by Brazilian team Loud, Vietnamese team GAM, and European team Fnatic. While TES might not dominate as decisively as T1, their path to advancement is also not fraught with significant challenges. The second spot in this group is likely to go to Fnatic, with Brazil's overall strength being average. However, GAM has the potential for an upset. This is not due to any particular rivalry with TES but rather because Fnatic is known for their aggressive playstyle, which might clash well with GAM's traditional approach to fights. If both teams engage in an all-out brawl, it could potentially set a new record for the number of kills in a single game. However, European teams generally have an edge over wildcards in terms of game management and closing out matches.

The Upset Everyone's Rooting For

If GAM can pull off an upset against Fnatic, it would undoubtedly be a highlight for spectators, as it would set up a thrilling match against TES in the group finals. The dramatic turnaround with Karthus in the 2022 World Championship against TES is still fresh in many fans' minds. An even more significant upset would be TES losing to GAM at MSI, which, while unlikely, is not entirely out of the question given TES's history of being defeated by wildcard teams in championships.

Conclusion

Under normal circumstances, the teams expected to advance from the Play-In stage are T1, TES, FLY, and Fnatic. However, there's always a 1% chance, where wildcard teams like PSG and GAM could seize the opportunity to move forward. It's this small variable that keeps the competition exciting and unpredictable.